Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 23.039931 27.602828 32.611161 38.487507 45.163400 52.481893 61.080599
2025-08-10 15.859346 21.713774 28.794557 37.861945 49.029198 62.194469 78.739485
2025-08-17 12.161530 18.535940 26.853302 38.224562 53.065789 71.466574 95.659946
2025-08-24 9.528749 16.004172 25.039751 38.102694 55.990114 79.085968 110.551278
2025-08-31 7.299755 13.504862 22.747717 36.832854 56.987859 83.974950 121.908289
2025-09-07 6.101471 12.283251 22.020710 37.523570 60.513874 92.200532 137.842053
2025-09-14 4.855100 10.703854 20.475436 36.746806 61.756985 97.224176 149.539563
2025-09-21 4.172612 9.953204 20.106268 37.653409 65.420782 105.705388 166.251621
2025-09-28 3.206840 8.446704 18.234925 35.924185 64.892146 108.043760 174.308004
2025-10-05 2.841144 8.054807 18.240093 37.239691 69.105287 117.443120 192.764040
2025-10-12 2.477870 7.582746 18.021453 38.120678 72.632650 125.918880 210.130309
2025-10-19 2.162741 7.143764 17.795882 38.940877 76.067172 134.348668 227.671425
2025-10-26 1.855168 6.683760 17.538389 39.814632 79.876800 143.887219 247.813600
2025-11-02 1.475035 5.924890 16.557499 39.263022 81.264168 149.761613 262.759565
2025-11-09 1.228956 5.451077 16.101398 39.642656 84.249011 158.261967 281.994824
2025-11-16 0.996351 4.927728 15.436524 39.517722 86.289910 165.272248 299.099212
2025-11-23 0.750820 4.247596 14.266255 38.210955 86.056516 168.476572 310.252936
2025-11-30 0.636261 3.983361 14.072505 38.921812 89.575962 178.051777 331.839912
2025-12-07 0.488433 3.506735 13.230802 38.122395 90.158387 182.636618 345.475820
2025-12-14 0.419260 3.331371 13.172423 39.055428 94.117736 193.145374 369.062782
2025-12-21 0.295479 2.804348 11.995620 37.275670 92.605211 194.037276 376.785858
2025-12-28 0.261046 2.725626 12.140487 38.629666 97.435027 206.266432 403.712184
2026-01-04 0.222742 2.597075 12.104734 39.536264 101.390574 217.054853 428.484467